Erste Research expects the National Bank of Romania (BNR) to intervene on the forex market “to tame” the volatility of EUR rate exchange against the national currency, a recent report of the Austrian group informs.
According to the financial analysts, this year the EUR-RON rate exchange is expected to fluctuate more than in 2014, because to internal and external political risks, but the central bank could keep an eye on the FOREX market and to continue to intervene occasionally.
It is also likely that the monetary easing to continue in 2015, the policy is focused on reducing minimum reserve requirements that the financial institutions must keep them at the central bank.
Erste estimates an economic growth of 2.2 percent in 2015, mainly due to the domestic demand, while exports are likely to provide less support compared to 2014.
The public investments are, again, a great unknown in relation to economic growth, Erste analysts note. They look with skepticism at government’s plans in this regard, as they are designed in 2015 budget.
The Austrian analysts believe that the benefits of Romania’s export within the European Union (51 percent of the total) will be affected by the low prices and the slow economic growth in the Eurozone.