CFA Romania: Banking analysts anticipate a decrease in housing prices in the big cities

About 80% of CFA experts anticipate a fall in the prices of residential properties in large cities (no opinion of price increases was recorded), while more than 83% of participants consider these prices to be overvalued (none of the survey participants considered that they would be undervalued).

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 83% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0000 lei for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0652 lei for one euro. Both anticipated values ​​show a slight reduction compared to the exercise in August.

The anticipated state budget deficit for the year 2022: the average value of the expectations fell to 6.6%, and for the year 2023 the estimated value is 5.8%, according to a statement sent by CFA Romania on Tuesday. The anticipated evolution, in real terms, of GDP in 2022 increased to 4.5%. For the year 2023, the anticipated value of real GDP growth is 1.6%. Public debt in GDP is expected to increase to 57% in the next 12 months.

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association fell to the value of 33.3 points. This situation was due to the decrease, by 0.3 points of the anticipations component and by 3.4 points of the current conditions component. The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon increased compared to the previous exercise, reaching an average value of 10.56%.

“Against the background of expectations of a strong slowdown of the global economy, the macroeconomic confidence indicator continued its decline, registering values ​​close to historical minimums, an evolution in line with the decrease to historical minimums of the indicators trusted globally. In accordance with the decrease in confidence in the economy, the expectations of economic growth have also decreased from 4.5% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2023,” said Adrian Codirlașu, CFA – Vice-President of the CFA Romania Association.

bankingCFAEURexchange ratefallhousinginflationlarge citiespricesresidential propertiesRONstate budget deficit
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