Eurocontrol 2023 Spring forecast expects 2019 levels of flights to be reached in 2025

The Eurocontrol 2023 Spring forecast says that 2019 levels of flights (11.1 million) are expected to be reached in 2025. This forecast is the first publication post COVID-19 with all forecasting modules reconnected: the low-to-high values now refer to a forecast range (statistical uncertainty) rather than scenarios.

Since October 2022, flight movements in Europe have developed in line with the base scenario. The number of European flights in 2023 and 2024 has been slightly revised upwards due to the continuation of vivid pent-up demand (solid bookings, strong tourist flows in Southern Europe), the survey notes.

Eurocontrol says that after 2025, the flight growth is expected to average a weak rate of 1.5% per year in the base forecast, owing to the greater uncertainties within the 7-year horizon (higher inflation, pressure on oil prices, environmental concerns…). As downside risks prevail, the number of flights in the low forecast stagnates from 2025 onwards.

Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range. Moreover, uncertainties surrounding further deterioration of the economy, possible escalation of the geopolitical tensions or other unpredictable events may have a negative impact on this forecast.

As for traffic trends up to February 2023, the report says that, after a strong Summer 2022, the industry is further recovering from the COVID19 pandemic with China reopened since midJanuary 2023. The network is still impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

More is available here.

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