The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association fell by 13.5 points in November, to 31.4 points, amid extremely high political uncertainty. According to the president of CFA Romania, it is the lowest level recorded during the Covid pandemic so far.
“Against the backdrop of extremely high political uncertainty and the sharp increase in investors’ risk aversion, the confidence indicator has fallen to levels reached only during the Corona pandemic,” explained Adrian Codîrlaşu, president of the CFA Romania Association, according to a press release.
CFA Romania data show that this situation was caused by the sharp decrease in both of its components. The expectations component decreased by 12.1 points, to 23.3 points, the lowest since January 2019. At the same time, the current conditions component decreased by 16.4 points, to 47.8 points.
The monthly survey conducted by CFA Romania shows that the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (December 2025) increased compared to the previous year and stood at an average value of 5%. At the same time, 59% of analysts anticipate an increase in the inflation rate in the next 12 months, and 27% a stagnation.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 77% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, and the rest a stagnation. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0310 lei for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0831 lei for one euro.
Overvalued prices
For 2025, CFA Romania analysts anticipate economic growth at an average of 1.3%, down from 1.6% at the end of this year. The state budget deficit forecast for next year has increased to an average of 7.2% of GDP, down from a forecast of 7.8% at the end of 2024, and public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 58% in the next 12 months.
Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 50% of participants anticipate stagnation in the next 12 months, while 32% anticipate a decrease.
Also, 68% of participants believe that current prices are overvalued, and 27% that they are correctly valued. Survey participants were asked what are the main risks to which Romania’s economy is subject in the coming year.
According to the answers, in the top 5 risks for next year, three are economic, and two are not from the economic sphere. Thus, the main risk for next year is represented by changes in fiscal policy, followed by the risk of the Romanian economy entering recession. In third place is a non-economic risk – the risk of misinformation. The next two are the sustainability of public debt and the risk of armed conflicts between states.