The current Deputy Secretary-General of NATO, Mircea Geoană, remains in the top position in voter intentions for the presidential elections, running as an independent candidate and experiencing a slight increase. He is followed by Marcel Ciolacu, the PSD-PNL candidate, George Simion, Elena Lasconi, and Diana Şoşoacă, according to a poll conducted by INSCOP for news.ro.
The survey was conducted before PNL’s decision to run independently in next year’s elections and before the Lasconi-USR controversy. In the current poll, Elena Lasconi is credited with almost 10% of the voting intentions of those declaring they will participate in the elections, which is double the support for the current USR leader, Cătălin Drulă, who had a score of 5.4% in the previous poll.
The same poll also reveals that one-third of PSD voters would choose Mircea Geoană, while one-third of PNL voters would opt for Ciolacu. Meanwhile, 24.1% would vote for Mircea Geoană, and 17.9% for Elena Lasconi. The survey includes questions about choosing a woman or an independent candidate for the presidency.
“In the absence of their own candidate, only one-third of PNL voters would opt for the common candidate from the PSD. Elena Lasconi would receive a much higher score than Cătălin Drulă, but she would attract only one-third of the USR voters’ support. Mircea Geoană takes the first place, garnering a large number of votes from diverse categories: PSD voters, PNL voters, USR voters, undecided voters, and those who did not participate in parliamentary elections but would vote in the presidential elections,” notes Remus Ştefureac, the director of INSCOP Research.
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means “definitely not” voting and 10 means “definitely voting,” 14% of Romanians chose 1, 1.4% chose 2, 1.4% chose 3, 1% chose 4, 6.3% chose 5, 1.3% chose 6, 2.9% chose 7, 6.2% chose 8, 3.1% chose 9, and 61.4% chose 10. The “I don’t know” or “no response” option was chosen by 1.2% of the total sample.
Respondents who expressed a preference for a candidate from the list make up 84.7% of the total sample.
Compared to those who expressed a preference for a candidate from the list, whether they declare they will definitely vote or not (84.7% of the total sample), 27.7% of voters would vote for Mircea Geoană (independent), 21.8% for Marcel Ciolacu (supported by PSD and PNL), and 18.9% for George Simion (AUR). Elena Lasconi (USR) would be chosen by 12.1% of voters, and Diana Şoşoacă (SOS Romania) by 10.5%. Dacian Cioloş (REPER) would be the choice of 4.3% of voters, and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) of 3.1%. 1.6% said they would vote for another candidate. Respondents who expressed a preference for a candidate from the list and stated that they will definitely vote (54.3% of the total sample).
In relation to those who expressed a preference for a candidate from the list (undecided and no response were not taken into account) and gave a score of 10 to the question regarding their intention to vote (54.3% of the total sample), 27.2% of voters would vote for Mircea Geoană (independent), 24.2% for Marcel Ciolacu (supported by PSD and PNL), and 18.6% for George Simion (AUR). Elena Lasconi (USR) would be chosen by 9.9% of voters, and Diana Şoşoacă (SOS Romania) by 8.9%. Dacian Cioloş (REPER) would be the choice of 5.3% of voters, and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) of 3.4%. 2.5% said they would vote for another candidate.
Candidate Preference by Party Affiliation
PSD Voters
52% of PSD voters would vote for Marcel Ciolacu (supported by PSD and PNL) for the position of President of Romania, while one-third (33.5%) would opt for Mircea Geoană (independent). Only 5.6% of PSD voters would choose George Simion (AUR). The rest of the potential candidates mentioned would each receive less than 2% of the social-democratic electorate’s votes.
PNL Voters
34.8% of PNL voters would choose Marcel Ciolacu (supported by PSD and PNL), 24.1% would vote for Mircea Geoană (independent), and 17.9% for Elena Lasconi (USR). Less than 5% of PNL voters would opt for George Simion (AUR), Diana Şoşoacă (SOS Romania), Dacian Cioloş (REPER), or Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).
AUR Voters
67.2% of AUR voters would vote for George Simion for the position of President of Romania, 13.9% would choose Diana Şoşoacă (SOS), and 9% would vote for Mircea Geoană (independent). Less than 5% of AUR voters would opt for Marcel Ciolacu (supported by PSD and PNL), Elena Lasconi (USR), Dacian Cioloş (REPER), or Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).
USR Voters
Regarding USR voters, 32.9% would prefer Elena Lasconi, 24.7% would choose Dacian Cioloş (REPER), and 22.4% would opt for Mircea Geoană (independent). The rest of the potential candidates mentioned would each receive less than 5% of the USR electorate’s votes.
Presidential Candidate Profile
When asked about the possibility of a woman becoming the President of Romania, 79% of Romanians think it’s a good idea and would vote in favor, while 17.5% consider it a bad idea and would not vote in favor. Non-responses make up 3.5% of the responses to this question. 65% of Romanians believe that it’s a good idea for an independent political figure to become the President of Romania, and they would vote in favor, while 28.4% think it’s a bad idea and would not vote in favor. 6.6% either don’t know or did not respond to this question.