- 36.6% of Romanians would vote for Călin Georgescu in the first round, according to a recent MKOR poll.
- Ilie Bolojan (12.2%) and Nicușor Dan (11.8%) hold similar trust levels among voters.
- Crin Antonescu, the coalition’s candidate, risks increasing voter absenteeism in the second round.
- High voter turnout intention: 79% of Romanians would go to the polls if the first round of the presidential election were held this Sunday.
- Among undecided voters, 53% cite distrust in candidates, and 20% feel disappointed with the political system.
Călin Georgescu: Strong First-Round Lead, but Vulnerable in the Runoff
Călin Georgescu dominates first-round voting intentions, with 27.9% of respondents spontaneously mentioning him as their preference and 36.6% selecting him from a shortlist of eight candidates.
His profile attracts voters from all age groups (74% aged 28-56), particularly those with low to medium incomes (96%) and general education (50%). His supporters primarily cite anti-system change (38%) and his personality (18%) as reasons for their preference.
However, in a hypothetical second round, Ilie Bolojan is the only candidate who could defeat him, winning 42% to 40%, by mobilizing a larger voter base and reducing absenteeism.
Ilie Bolojan: A Credible Alternative
Ilie Bolojan is positioned as a strong contender, with 12.2% support in a restricted candidate list and 8% in a full list of 28 candidates.
Appreciated for competence and experience (26%) and integrity (33%), Bolojan is favored by voters over 30 (77%), those with above-average incomes (70%), and individuals with higher education (64%).
His advantage in the second round stems from his ability to appeal to a broader voting population, reducing voter indecision to 11% (compared to 16% in a Crin Antonescu vs. Georgescu scenario).
Nicușor Dan: A Well-Known Anti-System Candidate
Nicușor Dan secures 11.8% in a restricted list and 8.4% in spontaneous mentions, being seen as an anti-system candidate (65%) with concrete policies (54%) and strong values (50%).
His support comes mainly from urban areas (52%), higher-income individuals (85% of his voters), and those with higher education (91%), particularly aged 30-55. However, in a second-round scenario, he trails Georgescu (36% vs. 42%).
Note: Variations in polling results from other agencies for Nicușor Dan stem from a higher proportion of high-income respondents, which does not reflect the actual voter demographics.
Crin Antonescu: A Risk of High Absenteeism
Crin Antonescu, backed by the governing coalition, receives only 7.4% in a restricted list and 3.1% in spontaneous mentions. His voter base is largely undecided (38%), and in a second-round matchup against Georgescu, he loses 35% to 41%, increasing absenteeism to 16%.
His profile fails to mobilize enough support, indicating a lack of strong voter appeal compared to other contenders.
Voter Intentions: High Turnout, but Distrust Persists
- 79% of Romanians would vote (average intent: 8.5/10), but only 71% are certain (score 10/10).
- Among the 16% who would abstain, 53% cite distrust in candidates, while 20% are disappointed with the system.
- Young voters (Millennials 78%, Gen Z 72%) and those with higher education (77%) are more motivated, compared to low-income individuals (59%).
About the Study
The “Consumer Sentiment 2025” study was conducted online, on a sample weighted by education and income, in line with INS (National Institute of Statistics) data. The presented model aligns with voting preferences from the first round of the November 2024 presidential elections, serving as an additional validation method.