AtlasIntel released a new opinion poll conducted for HotNews for the presidential runoff. Therefore, according to this new survey, AUR candidate George Simion and independent candidate Nicușor Dan are in a perfect tie, each with 48.2%, in the intention to vote for the second round of the presidential elections scheduled for May 18.
The AtlasIntel survey was conducted between May 9-12, 2025 on a sample of 3,995 respondents, using a random digital recruitment method, has as its universe the electorate that votes in the elections in Romania and has a margin of error of ±2 percentage points at a confidence level of 95%.
The scores also include the diaspora vote, because the AtlasIntel survey also measures this electorate. Thus, each of the two candidates would be voted for by 48.2% of the respondents, while 1% of them would cancel their vote, and another 2.6% say that they “don’t know” who they will opt for.
Regarding the redistribution of votes for the candidates who participated in the first round of the presidential elections, the overwhelming majority of the votes obtained by the PSD-PNL-UDMR candidate, Crin Antonescu, i.e. 91.7%, would go to Nicușor Dan.
The AUR leader would obtain only 6.2% of these, according to the AtlasIntel poll. The situation is similar regarding the votes obtained by the USR candidate, Elena Lasconi. 96.7% of her voters will turn to Nicușor Dan, while George Simion will only take over 2.5% of Elena Lasconi’s votes.
In the case of voters of former Prime Minister Victor Ponta, a candidate who also marched on the “sovereignty” card in the first act of the presidential election, 69.3% of the votes for him would go to the independent candidate, and 22.6% would vote for George Simion.
47.3% of the votes for Daniel Funeriu would be obtained by Nicușor Dan, and 52.7% would go to George Simion. However, Funeriu scored an extremely low score in the elections – 0.34%.