The shocking victory of ultranationalist Călin Georgescu has raised concerns in Brussels that Moscow is attempting to pull Romania—a large NATO and EU member state with 19 million people—into its orbit following controversial elections in Moldova and Georgia, Politico reported Tuesday morning.
The publication highlights Georgescu’s “out-of-nowhere” rise and the shockwaves his victory sent through European capitals. Romania had been viewed as a reliable EU and NATO member, in stark contrast to smaller countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, which struggle with rule-of-law issues and pro-Russian tendencies. A potential anti-EU, pro-Russian shift in Bucharest, Politico argues, could severely undermine the EU’s functionality by complicating consensus-building among member states.
Politico also notes Georgescu’s massive following of 3.8 million on TikTok and his alignment with the archetype of the 2024 radical right-wing populist: “plain-spoken, dismissive of ‘Western orthodoxy’ [i.e., political correctness], despised by mainstream media, and skeptical of both the EU and NATO.”
The analysis delves into hypotheses of Russian interference, suggesting a hybrid attack on Romania. It notes that the surprise result coincides with Russia’s broader efforts to sway countries within or near the EU into its pro-Moscow camp. “If you follow what the Russians are doing in this region, you know Romania is extremely important to them,” said Milan Nič, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “Their plan is to control Romania’s access to the Black Sea—it’s their usual playbook.”
Until now, Romania, which borders Ukraine on the EU’s eastern edge, has played a supportive role in backing Western aid to Kyiv, including hosting the strategically vital Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base near the Black Sea.
Election observers have warned of attempts to influence recent elections in Moldova and Georgia. Meanwhile, Hungary and Slovakia, both EU members, already lean toward pro-Russian positions, and the Czech Republic may follow if former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš wins next year’s parliamentary elections. Concerns over possible, though as yet unproven, Russian meddling in Romania’s elections are fueled by Georgescu’s unexpected victory with 22.94% of the vote. This success came despite a lack of party support and polling data failing to detect his popularity ahead of the election. “He is the product of a [political] vacuum and likely of Russian money. If you can suddenly spend so much on TikTok, that raises many red flags,” Nič added.
Thanasis Bakolas, Secretary-General of the European People’s Party, warned that Georgescu’s performance is evidence of the rising tide of extremism across the European Union.
Politico also notes that Georgescu has gained the immediate support of far-right politician George Simion following Sunday’s victory. “If Georgescu secures all of Simion’s votes in the second round, he would reach 36.82%, just below the combined results of Elena Lasconi and center-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. Everything now depends on how many traditional mainstream supporters shift to last Sunday’s shock victor in the runoff,” the Politico analysis concludes.