The year 2024 is almost certain to be the hottest year on record and the first with a global temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to data from the European Copernicus service, following the second-warmest October on record.
“After ten months of this year, it is now almost certain that 2024 will be the hottest year on record and the first to exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level,” commented Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), according to the ERA5 database, writes AFP.
It’s even “likely” that warming surpassed 1.55°C within the calendar year, Copernicus reports. “This marks a new threshold in global temperature records and should serve as a trigger for increased ambition at the upcoming climate change conference, COP29,” emphasized Samantha Burgess.
This COP, starting on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan, will be dedicated to the delicate task of finding a new financing target to enable developing countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. climatic.
It will also come in the shadow of the imminent return to the US presidency of Donald Trump, who has previously described climate change as a “hoax”.
According to Copernicus, October was the world’s second warmest month after October 2023, with an average temperature of 15.25° C. This is 1.65° C warmer than pre-industrial levels from 1850-1900, before the massive use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) significantly warmed the atmosphere and oceans.
Extreme precipitation
However, according to the latest UN calculations, the world is nowhere near reaching this limit, which would allow the even more catastrophic effects of climate change, such as drought, heat waves and torrential rains to be avoided.
According to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), current policies would lead to a “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C over the course of the century. And even with all the promises, the global average temperature would rise by 2.6°C.
The deadly effects of global warming were again reflected in the floods in southern Spain, which caused the death of more than 200 people, mostly in the Valencia region.
Copernicus notes that rainfall was above average in October not only in the Iberian Peninsula, but also in France, northern Italy and Norway Scientists agree that, in most parts of the planet, extreme rainfall has become more frequent and more intense as a result of climate change.