If 2.3 children were born on average to a Romanian woman in 1960, the number of births dropped to 1.6 nowadays, according to World Bank data. The decline in fertility is not unique to Romania, but occurs in most European states. In the first two months, 10,000 fewer children were born in Romania than 5 years ago, according to the National Institute of Statistics.
The number of births in Romania has decreased steadily in recent years, each year bringing new negative records of contraction, which calls into question the sustainability of public finances.
With births falling rapidly and the number of seniors over 85 doubling between 2003 and 2022), sparking fears that a shrinking and rapidly aging population will put further pressure on finances, meaning in the medium to long term an increase of taxes, or an increase in the retirement age.
4 if 10 couples who want a child don’t succeed in obtaining a pregnancy, although they are trying this for 1 to 5 years (one in 10 couples is trying this for over 5 years), official data say. There are also couples who don’t want children, favoring an economic welfare and a professional career first.
World Bank figures show that in 2020 the average number of children per woman was below 2 in all advanced economies except Israel. Italy is also facing historical low birth rates.
INS: Children aged 0-14 rates to see serious decline by 2060
According to INS forecast, the young population aged 0-14 will experience a significant decrease by 2060 (in the average version), in the urban environment, from 1.56 million people to 5.8 thousand people to 890,000 people, and the share of the population residents aged 0-14 in the total population will decrease slightly from 15% to just over 11%.
Regarding the rural environment, the young population aged 0-14 will decrease from 1.48 million people to 878,000 people in 2060, its share in the total resident population decreasing from 16.4% to 14.1% in the year 2060.
From the total urban young population (0-14 years old) forecast at the national level (in the average version) for the year 2060, the North-East and Center and South-West Oltenia regions will be in the top of the “young” regions with the highest shares of of the young urban resident population (over 12.0%), and for the rural environment the highest proportions are expected to be found in the North-East (17.0%), North-West (15.7%) and South-East regions (14.5%).
The North-West, South-Muntenia, West and Bucharest-Ilfov regions will stand out with the lowest shares of the young resident population in the urban environment (below 12.0%), and in the rural area the South-West Oltenia regions (10, 3%) and Sud-Muntenia (12.0%), Statistics data shows.
Effects of less children and more seniors
Increasing dependency rate. If the retirement age remains fixed and life expectancy increases, the number of those who will rely on the State pension will increase, and the number of those active in the labor field – those who provide money from the pension budgets – will decrease