Western experts warned Ukraine about the beginning of the offensive from Russia. Forecasts were quite accurate. The Russian side also had prognoses — believed that a “special operation” would be carried out blitzkrieg and Ukraine would join the federation or become like a Belarus. However, the Ukrainians put up a resistance, which the Kremlin did not expect. Now, western analysts and politicians see three scenarios for further war.
According to CNN, if neither Ukraine nor Russia can lead, the war will enter a frozen phase. Such a scenario would entail significant losses on both sides and adverse effects on the world economy.
Read more here.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Addresses Asian Summit
The president of Ukraine named the most dangerous place in the world during the 19th Asian security summit “Shangri-La Dialogue”.
Since February 24, the head of the Ukrainian state has made several dozen presentations to foreign partners and students. On June 11, Zelenskyy was again online to speak at the Asian security summit. The president of Ukraine reported on the situation in the world, which is emerging due to the Russian aggression, and also proposed ways to improve the situation.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Black Sea is the most dangerous in the world. This situation is due to the mine laying on the sea and Ukrainian coasts and the release of feces and chemicals into the sea. Russia is responsible for the pollution of the sea and explosive objects that may end up on the coast of any coastal country. The president of Ukraine offered to respond to such a step by Russia to restrict the service of Russian ships.
Read the full story here.
Prime Ministers of Montenegro and Albania Arrived in Kyiv
The purpose of the visit is to meet with president Zelenskyy, as well as visit Irpin and Borodianka.
On June 15, the prime minister of Montenegro Dritan Abazovich and prime minister of Albania Edi Rama arrived in Kyiv and went to the cities of Borodianka and Irpin destroyed by the Russian army. The prime ministers could witness with their own eyes the crimes committed by the Russians on the territory of Ukrainian cities.
“We sympathize with Ukraine in connection with the many human losses, suffering, and destruction that have been going on for months,” wrote Dritan Abazovich on Facebook.
Read more here.
“We Can’t Say No” to Ukraine
The vice president of the EU Commission commented on the upcoming decision to grant Ukraine the status of a candidate member of the EU.
On June 14, European Commission VP Frans Timmermans said that by defending European values, Ukraine cannot but be admitted to the European Union.
“Ukrainians are defending our European values. And if given this, they are asking for the opportunity to join the EU, we cannot say “no”,” Frans Timmermans.
Timmermans confirmed the statements of many other EU member states about the exact timing of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, and so far, we are talking only about the status of a candidate. Finland and Denmark are so far against granting the status to the EU member status since in certain nuances Ukraine will not be able to be an equal member of the Union. Also, some countries are afraid of the state’s membership, on whose territory the 3rd world war is now developing.
Further details here.
Oil Demand Decrease in 2023
Due to record oil prices, OPEC expects oil demand to drop to 2 million barrels daily. This was reported by Reuters on June 14, citing OPEC.
After a decline in oil consumption amid the pandemic, oil demand has recovered again. Demand is expected to exceed pre-Covid levels this year, even with critically high prices. The forecasts of demand growth in 2022 and the decline in demand were influenced by market quotes.
July 12 will be published the first demand forecast from OPEC. This will become a benchmark for understanding the possible volumes of demand for oil on the world market. Presumably, in 2022, oil demand will equal 3.36 million barrels per day, and in 2022 it will decrease to 2 million or less. Read more here.