The Russian Federation is preparing a hybrid operation in the Republic of Moldova, similar to the one used before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and in February 2022, so that it can justify a possible escalation of the conflict in the region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW says that Russia has prepared the ground for such a hybrid operation in the Republic of Moldova to take place in the near future.
In its latest assessment of the war in Ukraine, ISW shows that Kremlin officials and spokespeople are trying to create informational conditions to justify possible Russian efforts to destabilize the Republic of Moldova and prevent its integration into the EU.
The fact that the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, expanded the narratives against Chisinau and came up with new accusations against the leadership of the Republic of Moldova suggests that the Kremlin is making efforts to create the conditions for a hybrid destabilization campaign, the Institute for the Study of War believes. And the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, accused the Chisinau Government of trying to “strangle” Transdniestria economically, preventing a diplomatic solution to the Transnistrian conflict and facing widespread domestic dissatisfaction with the policies of the Chisinau Government, says ISW.
At the same time, a Russian military blogger recently took up the issue of Transdniestria to promote the Kremlin’s narratives, saying that the Republic of Moldova is “arming itself to reintegrate Transdniestria by force,” and Russia must prepare for this.
It is not the first time this year that the Institute for the Study of War has warned that Kremlin rhetoric and Russian state media continue to encourage pro-Russian separatists in the Republic of Moldova, possibly in an attempt to sow political instability and division. Vadim Krasnoselski, president of the Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transdniestria, told reporters from the Russian state news agency TASS that the increased “militarization” of Moldova threatens Transdniestria. Over the past year, Moldova’s government has increased its military budget, participated in joint exercises with NATO, and received military aid from European states to protect itself from further military incursions from Russia.
“When our neighbor, with whom there has been an unresolved conflict for more than 30 years and treacherously attacked our peaceful cities in the past, suddenly rushes to arm itself, of course, this is a threat,” Krasnoselski said.
Transdniestria is a separatist region recognized internationally as part of Moldova. Russian troops have occupied Transdniestria separatist region since the early 1990s, when Russia invaded the region under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians.
In a previous assessment, ISW also showed that Russia is slowly carving out an information space aimed at destabilizing Moldova and justifying any future campaigns by framing Russia as the protector of “threatened Russian speakers” in Moldova. This approach is almost identical to the narratives constructed by Russia to justify the large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
General David Petraeus, former CIA director and former head of international forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, recently said that President Vladimir Putin “will not stop there” if Russia wins in Ukraine, and the Republic of “Moldova will be next in line, or maybe one of the Baltic states”.
In retort to the Institute for the Study of War‘s warning, Lilian Carp, chair of the Moldovan Parliament’s National Security Committee, claims that the main danger is not Transdniestria, but pro-Russian politicians.
“We talked continuously about the fact that the Republic of Moldova is under an informational attack by the Russian Federation, but also by hybrid actions. The fact that certain people, such as Şor (Ilan Şor, fugitive oligarch, who is currently in Israel – n.r.), but also other pro-Russian politicians from Chisinau, achieve, through their actions, destabilization in the Republic of Moldova, is not a secret to no one. The Russian Federation has been practicing hybrid actions on the territory of the Republic of Moldova for 30 years. They influence both electoral polls and certain political decisions. The statements (of Russian officials – n.r.) have intensified recently, but they do not differ from the actions they took previously,” the Moldovan official said.
“I say let’s rather keep an eye on the pro-Russian politicians from Chisinau, who undertake these destabilizing actions. Because, as a rule, the Kremlin reacted in the Republic of Moldova through them: it is cheaper and, as a rule, they are very docile. And, unfortunately, there is no shortage of such people, who can gladly provide such a service for them,” he added.