Unicredit’s outlook on this year’s economic growth is of 3.4%, according to a report issued by the bank on Monday. ING anticipates 4.1%, whereas other banks forecast a GDP growth by 3.5-4%, hotnews.ro informs, adding that the Grindeanu government is betting on a 5.2% GDP growth in 2017.
“The debates about the government intention to approve the two emergency ordinances regarding pardon and the amending the criminal codes have continued last week. The population has continued protests, with the peak on Sunday with 100,000 Romanians (of which half in Bucharest) have requested the withdrawal of the draft ordinances. Also, the Romanian PM Grindeanu has finalized the budget for 2017, which is to be approved on Tuesday, after being analysed by the Supreme Defence Council,” the Unicredit report reads.
According to the Unicredit estimates, the government will have trouble keeping the budget deficit below 3% of GDP in 2017 and 2018, which would mean that the planned investments in infrastructure, as well as the co-funding from EU funds, could be cut in order to meet the deficit target.
In its latest report in 2016, the central bank drew the attention on the economic risks – of fast deterioration in terms of invertors’ interest in emerging economies, world economic growth and the international financial system, as well as deeper geopolitical tensions.