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Analysts show modest expectations on Romania’s economic situation

CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index decreased in December by 4.3 percent against the previous month, at 61.3 points, due to anticipation of weaker conditions in the next year and worsened perception on the current economic situation, a press release informs.

CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011, quantifying financial analysts’ anticipations on the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.

The decrease of the Macroeconomic Confidence Index was mainly driven by the evolution of the index in the next year, which fell in December by 5.4 points to 54.5 points, its lowest level since September 2016.

Moreover, the index measuring the perception of the current situation fell by 2.3 points, to 75 points.

CFA Romania shows a pronounced worsening of expectations regarding the business conditions in Romania, the index dropping in December to -21 percent from -12 percent in November, given that 25 percent of respondents expect a deterioration of business conditions.

Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.

CFA analysts expected, on average, an inflation level of 1.5 percent for January 2017 – January 2018 period, down from 1.85 percent for the previous period.

As regards EUR/RON exchange rate evolution, the analysts expect a level of RON 4.50/ EUR in six months and for next year, a similar level to the previous survey.

About Anca Bernovici