BCR launches BCR Romania PMI® Index

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Banca Comercială Română (BCR), in collaboration with the National Council of Small and Medium-Sized Private Enterprises in Romania (CNIPMMR), announces the launch of the BCR Romania Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®), an essential indicator in determining the health of the economy. This initiative, under the global methodology provided by S&P Global, marks a significant milestone in providing accurate, timely insights into the Romanian manufacturing sector.

The BCR Romania PMI® is designed to measure the performance of the manufacturing industry by assessing new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and the employment environment.

As the first of its kind in Romania, this index stands as a critical tool for all financial institutions, central banks, local authorities and governments, as well as for investors and companies across sectors, providing a reliable basis for timely strategic decision-making and for coherent economic policy formulation. Romania has been so far the only major economy in the CEE region without a PMI® index.

“For BCR, the launch of the PMI® for Romania is a country project, to which we are directly contributing. The index indicates the overall health of our economy and serves as a compass for all stakeholders. It enables financial institutions to better assess risks and have a more efficient financial planning. For authorities, it provides a factual basis for policy-making that aligns with real economic conditions, while for companies, harnessing this information means optimizing operations, better supply chain management and improved investment strategies.

Given the complex overview offered by PMI® index, we are most pleased to announce to announce that Romania benefits from an analysis and forecasting tool that is essential for any dynamic economy. Moreover, our involvement in BCR Romania PMI® shows how we believe and invest in Romania. It shows how BCR supports Romania to fulfil its superior economic potential so that every Romanian can enjoy real prosperity”, said Ciprian Dascălu, Chief Economist BCR.

“Romania continues to have an economy based on exports of raw materials, which was also noticed in 2023, a year in which, for example, chemical products or manufactured goods represented significant increases (between 13% and 17%) in import. Therefore, I believe that the future of Romania must mean the financing of companies from various manufacturing industries, the support of job creation and above all the training of adequate human resources in industrial fields, and this index that we are making in Romania together with BCR, precisely conveys these conclusions. We will continue to analyze the various components of the Romanian economy and we will always come up with concrete solutions and public policy proposals”, said Florin Jianu, President of National Council of Small and Medium-Sized Private Enterprises in Romania.

Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) is a survey-based economic indicator designed to provide a timely insight into business conditions. The PMI is widely used to anticipate changing economic trends in official data such as GDP, or sometimes as an alternative gauge of economic performance and business conditions to official data, as the latter sometimes suffer from delays in publication, poor availability or data quality issues. The PMI is produced globally by S&P Global, and this also applies for BCR Romania PMI®.

“We are delighted to launch Romania’s first ever PMI® (Purchasing Managers’ Index™), which plugs a major gap in our coverage of CEE economies and will provide a timely, accurate and high-frequency data set to support decision making by financial institutions, investors and businesses. We expect the new BCR Romania Manufacturing PMI will quickly become established as a key indicator in the national economic calendar”, said Luke Thompson, Managing Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The BCR Romania Manufacturing PMI® is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. Data collection began in July 2023.

Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.

The headline figure is the Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI). The PMI is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation the Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction to the other indices.

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