CFA Romania: Macroeconomic Confidence Index fell in November by 4.1 points


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The Macroeconomic Confidence Index fell in November by 4.1 points against the previous month, down to 44.3 points and by 0.2 points against the similar period last year, CFA Romania informs in a release on Friday.

The Current Conditions Index fell against the previous month by 7 points, down to 5.6 points (against the same month last year the index fell by 4.1 points). The Expectations Index fell by 2.6 points, down to 48.7 points (as against the same month last year, the index grew by 2.4 points).

83% of participants anticipate the national currency will depreciate in the coming 12 months against the European currency, as compared to the current level. The average anticipations for the 6-month horizon are RON 4.6991 per EUR, and for the 12-month horizon RON 4.7427 per EUR.

The forecast for inflation rate for the 12-month horizon is 4.23% on average.

The average 3-month ROBOR Index rate, anticipated for the 12-month horizon, is 3.64%, with the yield of RON denominated sovereign bonds due in 5 years is of 4.91%. Consequently, given the anticipated inflation rate, real negative interest rates are anticipated over short term, the release reads.

The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.

Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.

CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.

CFA Romania promotes responsible investments over long term in the interest of its clients. CFA Romania has more than 230 members.

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