EC improves the growth estimate for the Romanian economy to 3.2%

The European Commission estimates economic growth of 3.2% for this year, and 3.5% for 2024, according to the spring forecast. It should be noted that in winter 2.5% was expected for 2023. Estimated inflation is 9.7% for 2023, the percentage being maintained.

As for the budget deficit, the European Commission expects 4.7% of GDP in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024. The anticipated public debt is 45.6% of GDP for 2023 and 46.1% in 2024. We note that current public debt data shows us that in February 2023 the 50% threshold was exceeded.

Referring to the European economy, the EC states: “Falling energy prices, easing supply constraints and a strong labor market supported moderate growth in the first quarter of 2023, dispelling fears of a recession.”

“This better-than-expected start raises the growth outlook for the EU economy to 1% in 2023 (compared to 0.8% in the winter interim forecast) and to 1.7% in 2024 (compared to 1.6% in the winter forecasts)”, the cited source mentions. The upward revisions for the euro area are of a similar magnitude, with GDP growth currently estimated at 1.1% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024.

Amid persistent pressures on core prices, inflation was also revised upwards compared to the winter scenario, reaching 5.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 in the euro area.