EC recalculates the Romanian economy’s growth this year to 5.8%

The European Commission has improved the estimates regarding the growth of the Romanian economy this year, from 3.9% as it anticipated in July to 5.8%, according to the autumn economic forecasts, published on Friday.

After a solid year in 2022, Romania’s economy is expected to slow, with an advance of approximately 2% in the coming years, due to higher inflation, tightening financial conditions and the negative effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Thus, the European Commission predicts a growth of the Romanian economy of 1.8% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024.

Inflation is expected to peak at the end of this year, remaining high in 2023, before declining in 2024. The inflation rate is expected to be 11.8% in 2022, 10.2% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024, according to EC estimates. The unemployment rate will be around 5-6%. Specifically, the unemployment rate would be 5.4% in 2022, 5.8% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024. The public deficit is expected to gradually decline to 4.8% of GDP in 2024, following solid revenues and the decline in current expenditure as a percentage of GDP, mainly due to high nominal GDP growth. The deficit would be 6.5% of GDP in 2022, 5% of GDP in 2023 and 4.8% of GDP in 2024.

The share of debt in GDP would be 47.9% in 2022, 47.3% in 2023 and 47.6% in 2024. The European Commission publishes every year two sets of detailed forecasts (in spring and autumn) and two sets of intermediate forecasts (in winter and summer). The interim forecasts include the annual and quarterly GDP and inflation values ​​of all member states for the current year and for the next year, as well as aggregated data for the EU and the euro area.