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The annual rate of inflation decreased in July 2023 to 9.4%, from 10.3% in June, amid food goods price hikes by 16.24%, non-food goods by 4.25%, and services by 11.65%, according to the data of the National Institute of Statistics, published on Friday. It is the first time in the last year that the inflation rate has fallen to a single digit.
“The consumer price index in July 2023 compared to June 2023 is 100.15%. The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (July 2023 compared to December 2022) is 4.4%. The annual inflation rate in July 2023 compared to July 2022 is 9.4%. The average rate of change in consumer prices over the last 12 months (August 2022-July 2023) as compared to the previous 12 months (August 2021-July 2022) is 13.7%,” says INS.
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices in July 2023 compared to June 2023 is 100.15%. The HICP-based annual inflation rate in July 2023 compared to July 2022 is 8.9%. The HICP-based average rate of change in consumer prices over the last 12 months (August 2022-July 2023) as compared to the previous 12 months (August 2021-July 2022) is 12.1%.
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised upward the inflation forecast for the end of this year to 7.5%, from 7.1%, and to 4.4% for the end of 2024, according to the data presented on Wednesday by the governor of the BNR, Mugur Isărescu.
According to the presentation, the basic scenario was built on the basis of the legislation in force at the time of the projection and does not include the impact of the fiscal consolidation measures recently discussed by the authorities. The trajectory is above the one presented in the Inflation Report from May, but more significant only at the end of the current year (+0.4 pp).
Wide uncertainties are also mentioned regarding the projected trajectory in the context of the likely adoption of some fiscal correction measures on the side of budget revenues, with a direct impact on CPI inflation (for example, increases in indirect taxes – VAT, excises).
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