Inflation slightly calmed down in October, but prices continued to rise

The annual rate of inflation dropped to 15.32% in October, from 15.88% in September, while the prices of food goods increased by 20.58%, those of non-food goods were higher by 14, 37%, and services were more expensive by 8.31%, according to data published on Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). The biggest price increases compared to October 2021 were for sugar (62%), oil (43%), gas (40%).

According to INS, consumer prices in October 2022 compared to September 2022 increased by 1.3%. The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (October 2022 compared to December 2021) is 14.5%. The annual inflation rate in October 2022 compared with the month of October 2021 is 15.3%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (November 2021 – October 2022) compared to the previous 12 months (November 2020 – October 2021) is 12.4%.

The harmonized index of consumer prices in October 2022 compared to September 2022 is 101.35%. The annual inflation rate in October 2022 compared to October 2021 calculated on the basis of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is 13.5%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (November 2021 – October 2022) compared to the previous 12 months (November 2020 – October 2021) determined on the basis of the HIPC is 10.8%.

The National Bank of Romania mentioned, on Tuesday, in a press release, that the annual inflation rate is expected to increase moderately towards the end of the current year, and then enter a gradual downward trajectory, which drops to the single digit level in the semester I 2024.

In August, the governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isărescu, announced that the inflation forecast for the end of this year is estimated at 13.9%, and for the end of 2023 at 7.5%. In May 2022, the BNR estimated inflation of 12.5% ​​for the end of this year and 6.7% for 2023.

The International Monetary Fund has significantly revised upward the estimates regarding the advance of consumer prices in Romania both for this year, from 9.3% to 13.3%, especially for next year, from 4% to 11%, according to the latest “World Economic Outlook” report, published on Tuesday by the international financial institution.