ROBOR Surges Sharply as Lei Interest Rates Climb Rapidly

By Romania Journal Last updated May 8, 2025

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The 3-month Robor index, which calculates interest rates on lei loans granted until May 2019, rose to 7.25% on Thursday, from 6.47% on Wednesday. It is the third consecutive day of growth. On the foreign exchange market, one euro is quoted at 5,128 lei. The National Bank of Romania will publish the official exchange rate at 1 p.m. Yesterday, the National Bank of Romania quoted the European currency at 5.0991 lei, a record high.

ROBOR (Romanian Interbank Offer Rate) is the average interest rate at which Romanian banking institutions borrow from each other, in lei, and its evolution is mainly linked to the level of liquidity in the market. IRCC will be 5.55% during the period April 1, 2025 – June 30, 2025. The reference index for consumer loans (IRCC) has decreased from 5.66%.

The IRCC is calculated based on the average interest rate at which banks lend to each other and is applied with a delay of one quarter compared to the reference period. The index is set daily by the NBR, as the arithmetic average of the quotes used by ten banks selected by the National Bank.

A central bank adviser sent a second warning on this situation amid electoral campaign for the presidential runoff. The state has not managed to borrow even 500 million lei from banks, with interest rates skyrocketing, wrote Eugen Rădulescu, a counselor at the National Bank of Romania (BNR), on his Facebook account. According to him, the government’s resignation paves the way for the seizure of all power by reactionary forces, who could easily form a new majority with AUR, POT and part of PSD.

“This possibility sends shivers down the financial markets,” Eugen Rădulescu wrote on his Facebook account.

Eugen Rădulescu also stated that he had warned since February that the country’s rating would reach “junk” levels if a sovereignist were to win the presidential elections.

“In an article published by Contributors on February 24, I wrote the following warning: “There would be no need for nationalizations to take place. Winning the presidential elections by a “sovereignist” would immediately lead to the downgrading of the country’s rating to “junk”, with a series of consequences that would follow at a very rapid pace: the collapse of the capital market, the immediate blocking of external financial resources, a tumble on the foreign exchange market. There would be no need for “sovereignist” policies to be applied. Their mere enunciation would lead directly to the doldrums. And the fact that the budget deficit is so high and the dependence on external financing is so pronounced leaves no room at all to postpone, possibly negotiate something,” Rădulescu wrote.

He listed the market reactions in recent days:

The leu has been losing over 1% every day since Tuesday. Panic? I hope we don’t get there.
ROBOR increased from 5.93% on Tuesday to 7.25% today. That means an increase of over 22%!
The state has not managed to borrow even 500 million lei from banks, with interest rates skyrocketing.

“As Brecht said, the rise of Arturo Ui can still be stopped. If we don’t do this, disaster will follow. Which will not wait for the implementation of the measures promised by the sovereignists. If we don’t change the direction of the ship called Romania, next Sunday, Titanic is written on us! Go to the vote and avoid disaster, for God’s sake!”, the BNR advisor stated.

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