Romania can join euro zone, most likely, after 2020
Adopting the Euro will take place at the earliest after 2020 as the political agreed term – 2019 was a formal one, without the authorities to have an agenda and a clear strategy, given that in 2016 Romania should already join the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) concept, economists say.
“The year 2019 to be feasible, it had to urgently come with a structural reform agenda that we need to implement it, which to lead us to a healthy real convergence, sustainable for long-term and to maintain on the same time our macroeconomic balances,” Ionut Dumitru, Fiscal Council President and Chief Economist of Raiffeisen Bank said attending a press conference, Mediafax informs.
Thus, the economic growth is not long-lasting and will be corrected at one time. According to him, the period after 2020 is the best-case scenario in which the economic policies are coherent and there is a structurally reform agenda which is applied.
In his turn, financial analyst Florin Cî?u points out that Romania has to decide whether to achieve real convergence before accession, with the advantage of a very independent monetary policy, or within the euro zone, when this advantage is lost.
Regarding the cut VAT on food to 9 percent as of June 1, Dumitru said that this will not fully convey into the lower prices, but only 50 – 60 percent, which will lead to an inflation close to zero at the end of 2015.
Referring to EC Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis statements on the package amending the Tax Code, Ionut Dumitru said that, perhaps, the Commission representatives were surprised by the extend of this package.