ZEW-Erste: Romania’s economic prospects for the next six months get better

In November 2014 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are improving. According to a recent ZEW-Erste Group Bank survey, the Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has gained 5.5 points and reaches a level of 12.5 points.

Romania ranks third in CEE on local economic outlook for the next six months, after the individual countries with the largest improvement as Slovakia which has increased by 24.1 points this month and Austria where analysts perception improved by 9.4 points compared to October.

Regarding the current situation of the domestic economy, analysts perception worsened in November to minus 0.1 points after October indicator fell by 7 points to 0 points. However, the current state of the local economy is above that of Croatia or Hungary, where it is at -54.6 points, respectively -20.6 points.

Outlook for Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) worsened this month, according to ZEW survey and the indicator that measures the expectations for the BET index recorded a decline of 7.7 points to 42.4 points.

At the same time, expectations for RON evolution were improved to 3.3 points, from 0 points in October.
The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts’ expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon.

The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007. In November 2014 the experts’ assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region decreases by 22.3 points to a level of minus 12.6 points.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes.