INS releases trends in the evolution of economic activity amid Coronavirus crisis

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The National Institute of Statistics has surveyed, as a first, the impact the novel Coronavirus is having on the Romanian economy. Data revealed there is currently a great incertitude on the local market, with one manager in five saying that the activity of his company will decrease by 25% by the end of March.

To measure the impact of SARS-Cov.2, INS has conducted an ad-hoc inquiry running from March 17 to March 19 to assess the evolution of the activity and the number of employees for March 17/19-31 and for April 1-30, 2020,” reads a INS press release.

The managers were asked on the perception over the evolution of the economic activity, namely if they consider that their activity will shrink down by 25 percent, from 25 to 50%, over 50% or will shut down, but also if they think their business will not restrained or if it might even increase. The option “I cannot assess” was also available.

The responses revealed that one in five managers had said that their business might be down by 25 percent by the end of March.

Three quarters of the managers who said that their activity would increase are from the retail sector.

As for the trend of the activity in April, the incertitude level is even higher, so, over 48% of the respondents mentioned that they cannot estimate the evolution of the economic activity.

The share of the managers who estimated that their activity will not narrow down in April has been halved as compared to March. In the industry sector, around third of the managers who said the activity will narrow down in April consider the shrinkage is ranging between 25pc and 50pc.

The most affected will be the SMEs whose managers assessed as main risk the downsizing by over 50% of their business or even the closure of the activity.

In terms of forecast on the number of employees by the end of March, almost one quarter of the managers said they cannot assess the upcoming trends. However, the highest downsizing will be in the service sector. The incertitude for April is on the rise, so,  43% of managers mentioned they cannot estimate the trends of the employee situation.

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