National Commission for Prognosis estimates economic slowdown of 2.8% this year

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The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP) estimates a slowdown in economic growth to 2.8% this year, from 4.9% the previous year, and an inflation rate of 8% at the end of the year, down from 16.4% at the end of 2022.

The figures presented by CNSP in the winter forecast published on Thursday do not differ from those recorded in the autumn forecast, published in October last year.

Consumption growth will slow to 2.4%, from 4.6% in 2022, while gross capital formation (investment) is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2023, compared to 10.2% last year. For next year, the institution estimates a GDP advance of 4.8% and a significant decrease in inflation to 3.7%.

In terms of trade, the export of goods (FOB) will record an increase of 10.6% this year, up to 102.65 billion euros, while for the import of goods (CIF) an advance of 12, 5%, to 142.55 billion euros. The FOB – CIF trade deficit will rise to 39.9 billion euros in 2023. For 2024, the export of goods is expected to increase by 8.2%, the import of goods by 8.5%, and the FOB – CIF trade deficit will reaches 43.6 billion euros.

In 2022, the increase in exports of goods was 24.3% and imports 28.8% with a trade deficit of 33.9 billion euros. The current account deficit will drop this year to 8.5% of GDP, from 9.4% last year, and in 2024 the advance will be 7.9% of GDP.

The average exchange rate will rise to 4.94 lei/euro this year, from 4.93 lei/euro last year, and will reach 5 lei in 2024.

On the other hand, the BIM unemployment rate will drop to 5.3% this year, from 5.5% in 2022, and then reach 4.8% the following year.

The average monthly net salary will rise in 2023 to 4,283 lei and in 2024 to 4,738 lei.

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