Most of CFA Romania members forecast RON depreciation in the coming 12 months, namely an increase in interest rates for loans in Romanian currency, a survey of the association released on Friday reads.
“It is to be noticed that 73% of participants forecast RON depreciation in the coming 12 months. The median values of anticipations for 6 months have pointed to an exchange rate of 4.5500, whereas for 12 months deadline the anticipated exchange rate is of 4.6000 (similar to the previous one). The forecasted inflation for 12 months (May 2018 vs. May 2017) had a median value of 1.65% (down by 0.15 percentage points against the previous one). Are to be noticed the anticipations for increased interest rates for RON, both over short term (3 months) and for medium term (5 years), 89% of participants to the survey envisaging such an evolution,” the document reads.
In April, the CFA Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased against the previous month to 60.8 points, by 4 points higher against in the previous interval.
CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011, quantifying financial analysts’ anticipations on the economic activity in Romania for a the next 12 months.
The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.
Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.
CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.