Financial analysts expect a national currency depreciation in the coming 12 months to RON 4.8894 for EUR and to RON 4.8055 in the next six months, CFA Romania informs on Wednesday in a release.
With regard to the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 87% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON during the next 12 months (as compared to the present value). Thus, the average expectation for the 6-month horizon is 4.8055, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected rate is 4.8894.
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (February 2020/February 2019) was on average 3.84%, the release reads.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index fell in January 2019 against the previous month by 4.9 points to 23.8 points, while as compared to the same month of the previous year, it lost 22.2 points. It is the lowest level since July 2012.
The Current Conditions Index decreased by 7.1 points against the previous month to 39.3 points (minus 17.9 points against the same month last year), the lowest level of the index since March 2013.
The Expectations Index decreased by 3.8 points to 16 points (minus 24.4 points against December 2017).
It is worth noting the expectations of the BET index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange to fall over the next 12 months, with over 75% of respondents anticipating this development, the release reads.
The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.
Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.
CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.
CFA Romania promotes responsible investments over long term in the interest of its clients. CFA Romania has more than 230 members.