CFA Romania: Average 3-month ROBOR rate of 3.13pc, average exchange rate of RON 4.7651/EUR in the next 12 months

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CFA Romania analysts expect an average 3-month ROBOR rate of 3.13%, an exchange rate of RON 4.7651 per EUR and higher inflation rate for the next 12 months, the Macroeconomic Confidence Index for February 2018, published Monday night, reveals.

According to the document, in February, the CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index rose by 0.7 points, up to 46.7 points, while the Current Conditions Index increased by 9.9 points, up to 67.1 points. Also, the Expectations Index declined by 3.8 points, down to 36.6 points.

With regard to the EUR/RON exchange rate, more than 81% of CFA Romania analysts estimate RON depreciation in the next 12 months as compared to the current value. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the six-month horizon is RON 4.7021 for one EUR, and for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is RON 4.7651 per EUR.

More than 84% of CFA Romania respondents believe the inflation rate will increase during the next 12 months. At the time of the survey, the inflation rate was of 4.32%.

At the same time, 96% of analysts believe that the RON interest rates for the three-month maturity will increase.

The anticipated average ROBOR rate with maturity of three months, 12 months from now, is 3.13%, and the yield of sovereign bonds denominated in RON, maturing at 5 years, is of 4.60%. In this context, for short-term maturities, CFA Romania anticipates negative interests.

According to the figures published on Monday by the National Bank of Romania, the 3-month ROBOR was 2.03%.

About 55% of respondents say that real estate assets are overestimated.

CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011, quantifying financial analysts’ anticipations on the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.

The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.

Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.

CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.

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