CFA Romania expects RON depreciation over next 12 months

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CFA Romania financial analysts are expecting the national currency of Romania, the leu (RON), to depreciate to a median of RON 4.6 for EUR 1 in the next 12 months, while inflation should stay at 2%, according to the CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, June 2017.

“In June 2017, CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index fell to 60 points against the previous month, 6.6 points lower than the figure previously recorded. The decrease was the result of both its components. Thus, the current conditions index was 76.2 points, a decline by 7.6 points, while the expectations declined 6.1 points to 51.8 points. As far as the EUR/RON exchange rate is concerned, it is worth noting that over 70 percent of the participants are anticipating a depreciation of the RON over the next 12 months. Thus, the expected median rate is RON 4.6000 to the EUR in the next six months and a similar one in the next 12 months.”

The expected median inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (July 2018 / July 2017) is of 2%, unchanged from the previous index.

On June 25 in the survey conducted by CFA, 73% of the participants estimated a depreciation of the national currency in the following 12 months.

The macroeconomic confidence index takes values ranging from 0 (lack of confidnce) to 100 (full confidnce in Romania’s economy) and it is calculated based on 6 questions regarding the current conditions — referring to the business environment and the labour market and the anticipations, for one-year period for the business environment, the labour market, the evolution of the personal income at economy level and the evolution of the personal wealth at economy level.

CFA Romania is the association of the investment professionals in Romania, many of whom holding the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by CFA Institute (USA).


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