The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index fell in December 2018 against the previous month by 15.6 points to 28.7 points, while as compared to the same month of the previous year, it lost 12.3 points, according to a release posted on Tuesday by cfasociety.org.
The Current Conditions Index decreased by 9.1 points against the previous month to 46.4 points (minus 12.5 points as compared to December 2017).
The Expectations Index decreased by 18.8 points to 19.9 points (minus 12.2 points against December 2017).
With regard to the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 87% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON during the next 12 months (as compared to the present value). Thus, the average expectation for the 6-month horizon is 4.7168, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected rate is 4.7883.
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (January 2020/January 2019) was on average 3.93%.
It is worth noting the expectations of the BET index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange to fall over the next 12 months, with over 73% of respondents anticipating this development, the release reads.
The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.
Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.
CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.
CFA Romania promotes responsible investments over long term in the interest of its clients. CFA Romania has more than 230 members.