CFA Romania: Macroeconomic confidence index fell in June, down from the historical peak in May

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The CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index fell in June to 70.8 points from the historical maximum in May of 77.1 points, the decrease being driven by the expectations component, while the perception of the current situation has reached a record level.
The current conditions index went up by 2.8 points as compared to the previous figure to 67.5 points.
“The expectations index fell by 10.7 points to 72.6 points. As regards the EUR / RON exchange rate, average expectations for the two timelines envisage an exchange rate of 4.45 RON/EUR for both horizons (6 months and 12 months), values similar to the previous ones. The expected inflation rate for the horizon of 12 months (June 2016/June 2015) showed an average of 1.38%,” reads a CFA Romania release.
According to the survey, 55.2% of financial analysts expect increases in personal income in the next 12 months, while only 3.4% anticipated their decline. The rest, 41.4% of respondents believe that earnings will stagnate during this period.
Financial analysts have good expectations for the stock market, over 62% of them estimating a positive evolution of the BET index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange in the next 12 months. Only 10.3% of respondents expect it to decrease.

CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index was launched in May 2011, quantifying financial analysts’ anticipations on the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.
Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.
CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.

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