The Macroeconomic Confidence Index fell in October by 2.1 points against the previous month, down to 48.4 points and by 5 points against the similar period last year, CFA Romania informs in a release on Monday.
The Current Conditions Index grew marginally as compared to the previous month, by 0.3 points, up to 62.5 points and by 3.4 points against the similar month last year.
The Expectations Index fell by 3.3 points, down to 41.3 points (+5.8 points as compared to the same month last year).
In regard to the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 80% of respondents anticipate the national currency’s depreciation in the coming 12 months (against the current level). Thus, the average value of anticipations in the 6-month horizon is 4.7087 and for the 12-month horizon an average value of anticipations of 4.7526.
The estimated inflation rate in the next 12 months (November 2018/November 2018) had an average value of 4.50%.
“The estimations regarding the increase of interests (against the current levels) should be noticed for the national currency due on short term (3 months) and over medium term (5 years), as 75% and 66% respectively of participants have anticipated this development. The average 3-month ROBOR rate anticipated in 12 months is of 3.85% and the yield of RON denominated sovereign bonds due in 5 years is of 4.91%. Consequently, given the anticipated inflation rate, real negative interest rates are anticipated over short term,” the release reads.
The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.
Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.
CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.