CNP: Inflation projection revised downward to -0.5 pc in 2016

The National Commission for Economic Forecasting (CNP) downgraded the inflation projection for this year from 0.9 percent in the spring forecast to – 0.5 percent in the Medium-term Autumn Prognosis 2016 – 2020 released recently.

At the same time, the Commission revised upwards to 4.8 percent the estimates on the Romanian GDP growth this year, from 4.2 percent in the Spring Prognosis. The forecast for next year was maintained at 2.5 percent.

National Bank of Romania (BNR) forecasts an inflation rate of – 0.4 percent for the end of this year, 1 percent below the estimate announced in May this year of 0.6 percent, according to the quarterly Inflation Report.

For the current year, CNP estimates an exchange rate of RON 4.48 /euro, up from RON 4.46/euro in the spring, and for next year – RON 4.46 / euro, compared to RON 4.44 / euro estimated in the spring.

As regards the estimates for investments, CNP anticipates growing levels in each of the next three years. Thus, in 2016 gross capital formation is expected to increase by 5.3 percent, in 2017 – 6.8 percent, 2018 – 7.1 percent and in 2019 – 7.5 percent.

Not least, according to CNP, the average net monthly earnings would increase in 2016 by 10.1 percent compared to 2015 to RON 2047, while the average gross salary would record an advance of 10.2 percent to RON 2,815.

For 2017, CNP estimates a 6.3 percent increase of the average net monthly earnings and by 6.4 percent on the gross, compared to 2016 to RON 2,176 and RON 2,996 respectively.

In the spring version, it was forecasted an increase of the average net monthly earnings by 5.4 percent to RON 2,106 and by 5.5 percent of the gross up to RON 2,897.