Eight out of ten CFA Romania analysts forecast an average exchange rate of RON 4.71/EUR over the next 6 months and RON 4.75/EUR in April 2019

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Approximately 80% of Chartered Financial Analyst Romania (CFA) analysts expect a depreciation of the national currency (against the EUR) in the next 12 months (as compared to the current value), according to a statement released on Monday by CFA. Thus, the average expectation for the 6-month horizon is 4.7106 units (median value of 4.7000), while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected rate is 4.7540 units (median value 4.7300). The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2019/April 2018) recorded an average of 4.55% (median value recorded of 4.50%), hotnews.ro reports.

The expectations regarding the increase of interest rates (against the current values) for RON both over short-term (3 months) and medium-term (5 years) are that 96% and 92% of the survey participants anticipate this evolution. The average 3-month ROBOR index over the next 12 months is 3.20% (median value 3%), and the yield of sovereign bonds denominated in RON with maturity of 5 years is 4.84% (median value 4.80%). As a result, for the short-term maturities, negative real interests are anticipated.

In April 2018, the CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased by 1.9 points up to 49.5 points against the previous month (as compared to the same month of the previous year, the index decreased by 11.3 points). This development was due to both components of the Index. Thus, the current conditions index has increased by 2.2 points, up to 66.4 points (as compared to the same month of the previous year the current conditions index decreased by 9.6 points). The expectations index rose by 1.7 points up to 41.4 points (as compared to the same month of the previous year, the expectations index decreased by 12.1 points).

CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011, quantifying financial analysts’ anticipations on the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.

The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.

Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.

CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.

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