Romania’s macroeconomic confidence, slightly higher in February

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Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased in February compared to the previous months, to the value of 56.9 points (plus 2 points), Chartered Financial Analysts (CFA) informs.

The growth was mainly due to the correction of the current conditions indicator.

CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011, quantifying financial analysts’ anticipations on the economic activity in Romania for the next 12 months.

“Therefore, the current conditions indicator was 67.9 percent, increasing by 4.3 points, while the expectations indicator rose marginally by 0.8 points, up to the value of 51.3 points,” the release reads.

As regards the RON/EUR exchange rate, 67 percent of the participants are expecting a depreciation of the Romanian national currency in the next 12 months. Therefore, the median value of expectations in six months reached an expected exchange rate of 4.5500 (increasing by 500 price interest points — pips compared to the one recorded in the previous reporting period), while the 12-month horizon recorded an expected exchange rate of 4.5600 (a value also increasing by 500 pips compared to the one recorded in the previous reporting period).

The expected inflation rate on the 12-month horizon (March 2018 – March 2017) recorded a median value of 1.5 percent (a similar value with the one recorded in the previous reporting period).

The expectations regarding the growth of interest rates in Leu currency, both for the short-term (3 months) and medium-term (5 years) deadlines are noteworthy, 93 percent of the participants in the survey expected this evolution.

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