Romanian Business Owners Show Cautious Optimism on Economic Outlook

Data shows notable variations across cities regarding respondents’ confidence levels. The highest percentages in the “not confident at all” category were recorded in Craiova and Constanța (14% and 13%), while the lowest were in Satu Mare and Bacău (10%). For “slightly confident,” Craiova and Satu Mare showed the highest values (35% and 34%), in contrast to Bacău and Constanța, where these were lower (23% and 22%).

In the “somewhat confident” category, Satu Mare stood out with a high of 36%, followed by Bacău (30%) and Constanța (29%), while Suceava recorded the lowest value (6%). For “confident,” Suceava had the highest value at 44%, followed by Craiova (38%) and Bacău (33%), while Satu Mare had the lowest confidence at this level (18%). The “very confident” category showed relatively consistent values, between 2% and 5%, with Constanța and Craiova highest (5%) and Satu Mare lowest (2%). These results highlight perception and attitude differences between regions, with respondents in Suceava and Craiova being more optimistic, while those in Satu Mare displayed greater skepticism.

Overall, this low absolute confidence may reflect caution amid persistent uncertainties surrounding the macroeconomic context and domestic challenges, suggesting that business leaders preferred realism and caution in 2024.

2. Projected Revenue Growth Regarding projected revenue growth, 61% of respondents anticipated an increase, with the largest share (18%) expecting growth between 10%-20%, followed by 16% estimating 5%-10% growth, and 14% predicting a more modest 1%-5% increase. These figures indicate a generally optimistic outlook, with a significant portion expecting positive developments.

On the other hand, 27% of respondents anticipated a decline in revenue, with some variation: 6% expected revenue to drop by over 30%, and the same percentage forecasted a 1%-5% decline, while 5% projected drops between 5% and 30%. Only 12% expected revenue to remain stable, suggesting some caution amid economic shifts.

City-level analysis showed significant variations in revenue expectations. Satu Mare had the highest percentage (9%) in the “decrease by 30%” category, followed by Suceava at 7%, while Bacău recorded the lowest value (0%) for this response, reflecting a less pessimistic view. In the “decrease by 20%-30%” category, the highest values were in Bacău (10%) and Constanța (11%).

For the “remain about the same” category, Satu Mare had the highest value at 22%, indicating a significant proportion expecting stability. For modest growth of 1%-5%, the highest percentages were in Satu Mare (19%) and Bacău (17%).

A more pronounced optimism existed in Craiova (25%) and Bacău (23%), where respondents expected 10%-20% revenue growth. The highest projected increase above 30% was seen in Craiova (8%) and Constanța (6%), while Satu Mare and Suceava had the lowest values at 2% and 5%, respectively. This diversity reflects regional differences in optimism and skepticism regarding future economic developments. Overall, the dominant trend is growth, though there is also a cautious and even pessimistic segment, reflecting a balanced outlook between optimism and caution.

3. Profit Growth Projections Data on projected profit growth for 2024 shows that, overall, 64% of respondents anticipated an increase, with the largest share (20%) predicting growth between 10%-20%, followed by 16% expecting growth of 5%-10% and 16% forecasting a more modest 1%-5% increase. These figures suggest a predominantly optimistic attitude among respondents.

Only 23% of respondents expected a decrease in profit, with 8% estimating a 1%-5% drop, and 4% forecasting a decline of over 30%. Additionally, 13% of respondents anticipated profits would remain about the same, reflecting caution in the face of economic changes this year.

City-specific analysis reveals differences in profit expectations. For example, Satu Mare has the highest percentage (24%) in the “remain about the same” category. For 1%-5% growth, Bacău recorded the highest percentage (23%), followed by Constanța (18%), suggesting a moderate growth expectation.

Higher optimism appeared in Suceava (25%) and Bacău (23%), where respondents anticipated profit increases of 10%-20%. The highest values for growth above 30% were recorded in Constanța (7%) and Craiova (6%), while Satu Mare and Suceava had lower optimism, indicating a more tempered outlook.

4. Employee Growth Projections Data on projected employee growth for 2024 highlights numerous city-level differences, reflecting optimism and caution alike. Out of 677 responses, 32% of respondents anticipated employee numbers in 2024 would stay about the same as in 2023, 43% planned to expand teams, and 25% expected reductions.

A moderate increase in employees, of 1%-5%, was anticipated by 24% of respondents, but Suceava had 33% in this category, making it the most optimistic city. High growth rates (5%-10%) were found in Satu Mare (15%), suggesting a more dynamic hiring outlook in this region.

The highest percentage in the “decrease by 10%-20%” category was in Constanța (9%), followed by Bacău and Satu Mare, both with 7%. In the “decrease by 5%-10%” category, Bacău and Constanța had the highest values (10% and 9%), reflecting uncertainties tied to regional economic outlooks.

Overall, the data suggests a moderate trend toward employee growth, with a cautious approach across most regions, and variations that highlight balanced perspectives between maintaining and expanding workforce levels depending on the economic specifics of each area.

5. Actions Driving Sales Growth Results from the barometer regarding actions that contributed to company sales growth in 2024 reveal significant differences across the analyzed regions. In Bacău, the largest proportion (67%) of respondents cited expansion into new local or international markets as the main growth driver, followed by increased investments in marketing and communication (57%) and adding more products/services to their portfolio (57%).

In Constanța, opening new distribution channels was essential for 39% of respondents, along with expanding the product/service portfolio (48%), reflecting an approach focused on adapting offerings and broadening consumer access.

Expanding sales into new markets and opening new distribution channels were main growth strategies in Suceava (37% and 34%) and Satu Mare (34% and 25%). Suceava also stood out with a high proportion of companies opting to lower prices (25%) to boost sales.

Meanwhile, companies in Craiova focused on increased marketing and communication investments (51%) and adding more products/services (46%), suggesting a growth strategy based on brand consolidation and product diversification.

Mergers with competitors to increase market share were more frequently mentioned in Satu Mare (28%) and Bacău (20%), indicating a trend toward consolidation in these regions. Generally, marketing strategies, diversification, and new distribution channels are the main growth engines for companies in these cities, with some differences based on local dynamics.