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The gas price on the Romanian Commodity Exchange (BRM) spot market is 44% higher than the Dutch TTF market, the biggest difference ever between the two indicators, according to an analysis by the Smart Energy Association.
According to experts, this is a consequence of the fact that the authorities are not making a decision on market liberalization or continuing the capping.
The price increases will continue, as a cold period with high demand is ahead. The gas price in Romania on the BRM spot market has increased by 72% since the beginning of the year, compared to a 15% increase on the Dutch TTF market.
If at the beginning of the year the spot price of gas in Romania was 4% lower than the price on the most important stock exchange in Europe – TTF Netherlands, on February 10, 2025 the price in Romania was 44% higher (the gas price on the SPOT market in Romania was 25 euros higher than that in Europe).
“Even if the household consumer will not pay a price higher than the capped gas price of 0.31 lei/kWh with VAT included, the state budget will be affected because it will have to compensate for the difference between the capped price and the suppliers’ costs of purchasing these gases”, show the specialists from AEI.
Companies that consume over 50,000 MWh/year that have freely set prices (were not included in the capping scheme) based on a formula related to spot prices will be greatly affected.
“This situation is due to the instability generated by the ping-pong of gas market liberalization, which has blocked the market, because everyone is waiting for an eminently political decision, without having the courage to sell or buy gas except in the short and very short term. Thus, at the smallest increase in demand for natural gas quantities following the decrease in external temperature, but also the “rationalization” of gas extraction from storage depots, the “apparent demand” is much higher than the “gas supply that is desired to be made available”, an aspect that has thrown prices into the air on the BRM spot market”, the analysis also shows.
On the BRM in January and February 2025, no transaction was made on the GasForward Market, transactions of 1.5 million cubic meters were made on the GasForward Market in the Central Counterparty Regime in January 2025 and 1.2 million cubic meters in the first 10 days of February 2025. Gas traded on the BRM spot market in Romania were 18.6 million cubic meters in January 2025 and 12.7 million cubic meters in the first 10 days of February 2025.
“The situation of uncertainty on the gas market in Romania has pushed transactions to currently be made almost exclusively on the spot market, which creates a high risk of gas price increases at the slightest variation in demand. Natural gas prices on the Romanian spot market could continue to increase, given the air temperature forecast for the next 10 days and the lack of a decision on what will happen after April 1, 2025,” the association’s representatives also state.
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