Economic analysts anticipate that the European currency will reach a record level in the coming period. The Macroeconomic Confidence Index, calculated as based on the organization members’ estimations, increased in August by 4.9 points to 50 points against the previous month, the figures released on Monday by CFA Romania reveal. Analysts thus anticipate that the EUR could exceed the level of RON 4.72 in the next 12 months.
The Current Conditions Index increased against the previous month by 5 points, up to 64.8 points, but considered against the same month last year the index has decreased by 3.8 points.
The Expectations Index increased by 4.8 points to 42.6 points, against the previous month. As against the same months last year, the index has grown by 0.8 points.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, about 75% of the participants anticipate national currency depreciation in the next 12 months (against the current value). Thus, the average anticipations for the 6-month horizon is of RON 4.7375, the organization’s release reads.
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (August 2018 vs. August 2018) was of 4.13%.
The release also reads that it is to be noticed the anticipation on interest rates increase (against the current levels) for the national currency due on short term (3 months) and over medium term (5 years) is seen by 70% of the participants to a survey as following the trend: the average 3-month ROBOR Index rate will reach 3.88% in the 12-month horizon, whereas the yield of RON denominated sovereign bonds, due in 5 years, is seen as reaching 4.88%. Consequently, given the anticipated inflation rate, real negative interest rates are anticipated over short term.
CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011, quantifying financial analysts’ anticipations on the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.
Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.
CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.