The National Commission for Economic Forecasting (CNP) has revised upwards to 3.2 percent from 2.6 percent the inflation projection for the end of this year, according to its spring edition of the medium term forecast 2018 – 2021, published on Friday.
The inflation projection for the next three years has also been revised upwards to 2.8 percent in 2019 (from 2.2 percent in the winter forecast version), 2.5 percent in 2020 (from 2 percent previously) and 2.3 percent in 2021 (from 1.8 percent).
The current account deficit forecast has also been revised upwards, the new figures showing a negative balance of 3.1 percent this year (compared to 2.8 percent previously), 2.8 percent in 2019 (versus 2.5 percent), 2.5 percent in 2020 (against 2. 3 percent) and 2.4 percent in 2021 (versus 2 percent).
CNP’s spring edition also shows a higher rate for the national currency. Thus, 2018 will end with a quote of RON 4.65/EUR (up from RON 4.59/EUR as estimated in the winter version) and the next three years will come with a slight appreciation of RON/EUR exchange rate. In this respect, CNP indicates an average exchange rate of RON 4.62/EUR in 2019 (compared to RON 4.58/EUR as estimated two months ago), RON 4.60/EUR in 2020 (compared to RON 4.56 /EUR previously) and RON 4.58/EUR in 2021 (compared to RON 4.54/EUR previously).
As regards Gross Domestic Product evolution, CNP maintaines the estimates published in February, according to which the economic growth this year will reach 6.1 percent, followed by increases of 5.7 percent in 2019 and 2020 and 5 percent in 2021.