27% of Romanian employers forecast an increase in payrolls in the July – September 2018 interval, while only 8% anticipate a decrease, resulting in a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +13%, which improves by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and remains relatively stable when compared with the July – September 2017 interval, according to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for Q3/2018.
Hiring perspectives are positive across all eight of the country’s regions and eight out of ten industry sectors. From a regional perspective, the most optimistic are employers in the West region, who report an Outlook of +17%, 7 percentage points stronger than in the previous quarter and 14 percentage points stronger than in Q3/2017. Employers in the Center region are also optimistic, reporting a +16% Outlook that is 1 percentage point weaker than in Q2/2018, but 6 percentage points stronger than last year at this time. Employers in the North-East and South regions also report quarter-on-quarter declines of 1 percentage points, reporting Q3 Outlooks of +5% and +8% respectively, whereas in the South-West perspectives are 4 percentage points weaker than last quarter, but the Outlook is still a respectable +8%. When compared to last year, Outlooks are weaker in four of the eight regions, most notably in the North-East region, where the +5% Net Employment Outlook, the least optimistic in the country, is 14 percentage points weaker than in Q3/2017.
When it comes to industry sectors, hiring intentions are mixed. Employers in the Manufacturing sector are once again the country’s most optimistic, reporting a +28% Net Employment Outlook which improves by 2 percentage points over Q2, but declines by 2 percentage points when compared to last year. The most significant year-on-year decline is reported by employers in Mining and Quarrying where the Outlook weakens by 15 percentage points over Q3/2017, and 5 percentage points over Q2/2018, and drops to -11%, the country’s least optimistic industry forecast, and one of only two negative prognoses, alongside the -4% Outlook reported in Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing. Conversely, the most notable year-on-year improvement is reported in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services sector, where the +15% Outlook is 9 percentage points stronger than in Q3/2017.
Job seekers are likely to find opportunities in organizations of all sizes. The strongest hiring intentions are reported by large employers, with an Outlook of +27%. The most cautious plans are forecast by employers in micro-organizations, but the +5% Net Employment Outlook they report is the strongest (and only positive one) in the past year, improving by 6 percentage points over both the April – June 2018 interval, and Q3/2017.
In Romania, the Q3/2018 survey was conducted by InfoCorp Ltd. between April 18th – May 1st 2018 on a representative sample of 628 employers.
Results for all 44 countries can be viewed in the interactive ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Explorer tool at www.manpowergroup.com/meos.