Sociologist Alin Teodorescu has presented the latest IMAS survey on voting intention. Thus, the PSD lost 10 percent of the vote in ten months.
Voting intentions in September 2017: PSD – 38.8% (49% in January 2017); PNL – 30.9% (20.7% in January 2017); ALDE – 8.1% (6.8% in January 2017); USR – 6.8% (8.3% in January 2017).
“Generally, after you win the election you have a plus of 10-15%. (Normally it would have been) 60 percent! 55-60%. PSD had two big moments when it began to decline: February-March, with Ordinance 13. Mr. Iordache (former Justice Minister – our note), who promoted EGO 13, has lost one million voters for PSD; and the ousting of Prime Minister Grindeanu, which resulted in a loss of about 500,000 voters. So, Mr. Dragnea and Mr. Iordache have 1.5 million voters on their conscience this year. They may lose more next year,” sociologist Alin Teodorescu said for Digi24 TV.
On the other hand, PNL benefits from the PSD erosion.
“If they do nothing, they will not go past PSD. They will go up to around 30 percent, and when the elections come, they will collapse again where they were,” Alin Teodorescu said.
In the case of the ALDE, the sociologist says that “some of those who leave the PSD join this party. It’s kind of a haven for disappointed PSD voters. The disappointed PSD voters go 60 percent to PNL and 40 percent to ALDE, except for those who do not vote,” he added.
“USR is doing nothing, so it goes downwards,” Alin Teodorescu said about the party that entered as the third power in Parliament.
In conclusion, about PSD and PNL, the sociologist said that “as PSD has begun now the fight against justice, against the public spirit in Romania, against the state institutions, they can be overcome by PNL, not by much, but they can be taken over by PNL in the next two years”.
Growing confidence in President Iohannis
According to IMAS, the confidence in Mihai Tudose cabinet has not fallen sharply (not by 20% as the recent Avangarde opinion poll read) only by 6%. On the other hand, PSD chairman Liviu Dragnea is not trusted by about 15-20% of the social-democrat supporters. The confidence in Dragnea has decreased from 31.5% in January to 18.7% in September. “A leader that scores less than the party cannot cling too long to the chair,” Teodorescu said.
Confidence in President Klaus Iohannis is on an upward trend and, most probably, he will not have a counter-candidate in the 2019 election. “Much to his benefit will count the fact that in 2019 he will be (rotating) President of the EU and will welcome 27 heads of state in Sibiu, this will probably boost his public image,” Alin Teodorescu added.
Confidence in Klaus Iohannis increased from 32.1% in January to 41.7% in September.
The IMAS survey was conducted by phone in September on 1,000 respondents.