INSCOP Poll: Geoană Leads, Followed by Ciolacu, Lasconi, and Șoșoacă

Mircea Geoană ranks first in voting intentions for the presidential elections, with a share of 21.4%, but just one percent away he is followed by Marcel Ciolacu who would get 20.3 and Elena Lasconi who would get 14.2% of votes and Diana Șoșoacă 13.6%, according to a survey carried out by INSCOP at the behest of the Institute for Freedom and Democracy, in September.

On the next places are George Simion (AUR) with 12%. PNL leader Nicolae Ciucă is in sixth place with 7.1%, followed by Cristian Diaconescu (independent) 4.7%, and for Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) – 3.7%. 1.9% would vote for Cristian Terheș (Romanian National Conservative Party), and Ana Birchall (independent) would get 0.7%. 0.4% say they would vote for another candidate.

“After the official confirmation of the candidacies by the main competitors, the INSCOP Research survey presents the first picture that measures the voting intention for the presidential elections in conditions of an electoral campaign, and in the coming weeks we will also observe the trends. The presence declared in the 1st round by those who choose a candidate is approximately 60% of the total population, which confirms the hypothesis that more citizens will vote in the presidential elections than in the local and European parliamentary elections. Regarding the voting intention, we notice two candidates who are contesting their first position – Mircea Geoană and Marcel Ciolacu, the only ones who obtain scores above 20% and are placed at a distance of 5-7 percent from Elena Lasconi. The large number of candidates measured before the completion of the signature collection procedures and the final validation of the competitors leads to a large fragmentation of the voting intention, and the presence of independent candidates generates a new situation for Romania’s recent democracy in which it is possible that in the second round to qualify finalists with scores below 25% in round 1″, explained the director of INSCOP Research, Remus Ștefureac, in a press release.

He added that the competition for the first round of the presidential elections will be much more contested than in other polls for the position of head of state.

“Regarding the estimates for the second round, candidates who are not limited to a certain electoral pool, but attract votes from several areas like Mircea Geoană, have a significantly higher voting intention in all the scenarios in which they participate. In the absence of Mircea Geoană, Marcel Ciolacu ranks first, but with closer scores. The two candidates of the right, Nicolae Ciucă and Elena Lasconi, would be practically equal in the second round”, said Ștefureac.