INSCOP poll says Marcel Ciolacu to face George Simion in the presidential runoffs

By Romania Journal Last updated Nov 14, 2024

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An INSCOP poll on voting intentions for the presidential elections, commissioned by the Libertatea newspaper, published on Thursday, 10 days before the first round, shows that Marcel Ciolacu, the leader of the PSD, and George Simion, the president of AUR, would enter the final for Cotroceni.

According to the Inscop research, Marcel Ciolacu would obtain 24.8% of the votes of those who say they will go to the polls, followed by George Simion, with 21.3% and Elena Lasconi with 14.3%. Next is Mircea Geoană (independent) with 12.2%, Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) with 8.8%. 5.5% of voters would opt for Călin Georgescu (independent), 4.5% for Cristian Diaconescu (independent), 4.3% for Kelemen Hunor (UDMR). 2% of voters would vote for Cristian Terheş (PNCR), 0.7% for Ludovic Orban (PMP and FD). Ana Birchall (independent) would obtain 0.7%, and Alexandra Păcuraru (ADN) 0.7%. 0.2% of respondents indicate another candidate, according to the survey.

“The INSCOP survey conducted by Libertatea shows that Marcel Ciolacu and George Simion continue to be in the top two places. The estimated presence compared to the resident population in Romania is 56%. The new elements are: the share of undecided people (14% compared to the total sample and almost 10% compared to respondents who declare that they will definitely vote), which increases the level of uncertainty regarding the final outcome of the presidential elections and the somewhat unexpected rise of candidate Călin Georgescu, who exceeds 5%, possibly due to an active presence in the online space, but without consistent appearances in traditional media. In the round 2 simulations, the candidates who perform best are Marcel Ciolacu and Mircea Geoană, but the scores are very close”, stated Remus Ştefureac, INSCOP director.

The opinion poll was conducted by INSCOP Research, between November 7-12, 2024. Research method: interview via questionnaire. Data were collected using the CATI method (telephone interviews), the sample size being 1100 people, representative of significant socio-demographic categories (gender, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over. The maximum permissible error of the data is ± 2.95%, at a confidence level of 95%.

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