INSCOP Presidential Elections: Who are the Top Three Favorites?

0

Get real time updates directly on you device, subscribe now.

Mircea Geoană, the Deputy Secretary General of NATO, is leading in the voting intentions for the presidential elections with 26.2%, according to a survey commissioned by News.ro and conducted by INSCOP. He is followed by Marcel Ciolacu, Diana Șoșoacă, George Simion, and Nicolae Ciucă.

If Geoană does not run, Ciolacu takes the first place with 27.4% of the votes, followed by Șoșoacă, Simion, and Ciucă.

“It is observed that Diana Șoșoacă and George Simion are competing for the same segment of voters, which means that an increase for one automatically results in a decrease in the voting intention for the other,” stated INSCOP Research Director Remus Ștefureac.

The voting intention for Șoșoacă has increased by 4.3% compared to September, surpassing Simion, who has 4.7% fewer voting intentions than in September.

On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means “definitely not” voting and 10 means “definitely yes” voting, 13% of Romanians chose 1, 1.7% chose 2, 1.6% chose 3, 1.2% chose 4, 6.2% chose 5, 2.1% chose 6, 2.9% chose 7. 7% indicated 8, 6% – 9, and 57.6% – 10. 0.7% represents the proportion of non-responses.

Voting Intentions for Presidential Elections (Scenario 1)

In the first scenario, which replicates the measurement from September, the list included the following potential candidates: Mircea Geoană (independent), Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), Diana Șoșoacă (SOS România), George Simion (AUR), Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), Cătălin Drulă (USR), Dacian Cioloș (REPER), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).

In relation to those who expressed a preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare they will definitely vote or not (83.1% of the total sample), 26.2% of voters would vote for Mircea Geoană (independent) (compared to 25.3% in September 2023), 20.8% for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) (compared to 19.5% in September 2023), 14.4% for Diana Șoșoacă (SOS) (compared to 10.1% in September 2023), and 14% for George Simion (AUR) (compared to 18.7% in September 2023).

Nicolae Ciucă would be chosen by 12.1% of voters (compared to 11.2% in September 2023), and Cătălin Drulă (USR) by 4.2% (compared to 5.6% in September 2023). Dacian Cioloș (REPER) would be chosen by 3.9% of voters (compared to 4.1% in September 2023), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) by 2.4% (compared to 2.7% in September 2023). 1.9% say they would vote for another candidate (compared to 2.8% in September 2023).

Voting Intentions for Presidential Elections (Scenario 2)

In the second scenario, the list included the following potential candidates: Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), Diana Șoșoacă (SOS România), George Simion (AUR), Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), Cătălin Drulă (USR), Dacian Cioloș (REPER), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).

In relation to those who expressed a preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare they will definitely vote or not (76.4% of the total sample), 27.4% of voters would vote for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), 19.1% for Diana Șoșoacă (SOS), and 18% for George Simion (AUR).

Nicolae Ciucă would be chosen by 14.1% of voters, and Cătălin Drulă (USR) by 7.1%. Dacian Cioloș (REPER) would be chosen by 6.7% of voters, and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) by 2.7%. 4.9% say they would vote for another candidate.

INSCOP Research tested two voting scenarios for the presidential elections, one including only the leaders of the main political parties as candidates and another one including Mircea Geoană as an independent candidate alongside political leaders. As we approach the presidential election and the number of potential candidates increases, the list of people tested in these sociological surveys will accordingly be modified. Compared to September, we observe slight increases in the voting intention for Mircea Geoană, Marcel Ciolacu, and Nicolae Ciucă, but also a greater increase in the case of Diana Șoșoacă, an evolution that correlates with a decrease in the voting intention for George Simion. Essentially, similar to the voting for political parties, we observe that Diana Șoșoacă and George Simion compete for the same segment of voters, meaning that an increase for one automatically results in a decrease in the voting intention for the other,” stated Remus Ștefureac, Director of INSCOP Research.

DONATE: Support our work
In an ever changing and challenging world, the media is constantly struggling to resist. Romania Journal makes no exception. We’ve been informing you, our readers, for almost 10 years, as extensively as we can, but, as we reject any state funding and private advertising is scarce, we need your help to keep on going.
So, if you enjoy our work, you can contribute to endorse the Romania Journal team. Any amount is welcome, no strings attached. Choose to join with one of the following options:
Donate with PayPal
Donate by Bank Wire
Black Zonure SRL
UniCredit Bank. Swift: BACXROBU
RON: RO84 BACX 0000 0022 3589 1000
EURO: RO57 BACX 0000 0022 3589 1001
USD: RO30 BACX 0000 0022 3589 1002

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.