PNL gets the first crack in the Sunday’s general election, but the fight is tight and surprises are not ruled out, according to an IRSOP opinion poll released on Wednesday.
The survey presents the following ranking: PNL ranks first with 33%, PSD comes second with 30%, USR-PLUS follows third with 17%. Pro Romania would get 7%, UDMR- 5% and PMP would not enter Parliament, being credited with just 3%. Other parties are credited with 5%.
“Although leading in the poll, PNL has not increased in the past weeks, and the share of the voters who say they are going to polls <for sure> and <very sure> is lower at PNL than in PSD and USR. PSD has grown by the end of the electoral campaign, but, compared to PNL and USR-PLUS, it has more voters aged over 65 who think that the infection risk is very high in the polling stations and a part of them will probably prefer to stay home,” say the authors of the opinion poll.
IRSOP also added that if the ranking above is maintained, “the future governmental formula is announced as a difficult one. A PNL alliance with USR-PLUS needs additional partners and it opens a totally unknown and unpredictable partnership territory”, IRSOP analysts opined.
In terms of the preferences for potential ruling coalitions, 47% of the respondents would favor a PNL-USR PLUS coalition, while 49% would not. Only 20% would accept a coalition made of PNL, USR-PLUS and UDMR, while 76% are against one of this kind.
64% would be against a coalition made of PSD and Pro Romania, with 33% favoring it. 73% are against a coalition consisting of PSD, Pro Romania and UDMR, with only 23% agreeing to it.
Factors influencing the vote
Romanians don’t feel their economic situation is improving, the survey’s analysts pointed out. When comparing it with the situation last year, only 9% say it is better now, with 90% saying it is unchanged or worst.
As for the economic expectations, 83% of the respondents have the feeling the prices are constantly rising, while around two thirds (61%) believe they will live the same or even worst next year. 36% consider they will live better in 2021, 37%-worse, and the same-24%.
“The optimists” lean more toward PNL and USR-PLUS, while “the pessimists” lean more to PSD. Only around a third (36%) link their hopes to PSD.
“It means that if pessimism is on the rise, PSD will also rise, and if people are getting more optimistic, PNL and USR-PLUS will expand their followers base”, the IRSOP analyst argued.
Possible post-election predictions
“Regardless of who is winning, the future government will be a difficult coalition with a fragile parliamentary majority.
The pessimist economy-related expectations suggest that people will probably consume less next year and will save money, with the effects of a lower consumption being felt on the economy.
The compliance with the safety measures prompted by the coronavirus pandemic is higher for over half of the population that are mostly concerned with the virus. For the other half of the population the fear of restrictions and of losing jobs is prevalent. It means that the rational management of restrictions and insurances against unemployment can stimulate the public compliance with the sanitary protection measures.
The wide access of the population to the anti-Covid vaccine, political stability and the economic growth through productive investments that can create jobs might significantly improve the population’s optimism and the mindset”, IRSOP concluded.