Public Opinion on International Tensions: Insights from IRSOP Survey

A recent survey conducted by IRSOP Market Research & Consulting between March 12-18, 2025, gathered public opinions on various international tensions, including the war in Ukraine, potential threats to Europe, and Romania’s defense strategy. The study, based on phone interviews with 1,140 respondents, provides significant insights into current geopolitical perceptions in Romania.

1. The War in Ukraine

When asked about the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, 65% of respondents believe the war will continue for a prolonged period, while 31% think it will end soon. Regarding the outcome of the war, 64% expect Russia to emerge victorious, whereas only 19% foresee a Ukrainian victory, with 17% uncertain.

The survey also explored opinions on continued European support for Ukraine if the United States withdraws its military and financial aid. A majority (58%) believe the European Union should continue to support Ukraine, while 39% think the support should cease.

2. Perceived Threats

The results indicate that 66% of respondents consider Russia a threat to Europe, whereas 33% do not share this concern. In the hypothetical scenario of a military confrontation between Europe and Russia, 60% believe Europe would prevail, while 32% think Russia would win.

The prospect of a continent-wide war in Europe worries a significant portion of respondents: 61% express high concern, 22% are slightly worried, and 17% are not concerned at all.

The possibility of the U.S. officially leaving NATO and withdrawing its 100,000 troops from Europe raises concerns about European security. In such a scenario, 55% of respondents believe Europe would be in danger, while 42% think it is strong enough to defend itself without U.S. support.

3. Romania’s Defense Capacity

Given the current external tensions, the public is divided on the structure of Romania’s military forces: 51% favor a voluntary army, while 49% support mandatory military service.

Regarding defense spending, 60% believe Romania should increase its military budget, while 37% think the current level of spending is sufficient. However, when it comes to contributing more to the European Union’s defense, 65% believe Romania should maintain its current spending, while 32% support an increase.

4. Romania’s Strategic Positioning

Most Romanians (78%) oppose sending troops to Ukraine to monitor a potential peace agreement, while 20% are in favor.

Regarding European unity, 84% believe Romania should support the cohesion of the European Union, whereas 12% do not see this as a priority.

In case of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO, 52% of respondents think Romania should rely on the European Union for its security, 27% believe the country should defend itself independently, 16% still consider America as a key security partner, and only 3% suggest aligning with Russia.

The IRSOP survey highlights a complex perception of international tensions among Romanians. While there is significant concern about Russia’s threat and the war in Ukraine, there is also strong support for European unity and increased national defense. The uncertainty surrounding NATO’s future and the potential withdrawal of U.S. support add further layers to the ongoing security debate.