Global market jitters caused by the dollar’s rally are unlikely to leave a lasting mark on Central European currencies, and most are expected to strengthen in the next 12 months, a Reuters poll of 30 analysts found.
Inflation has remained moderate despite robust economic growth and a surge in wages in most of Central Europe, which is closely tied to the euro zone, and less vulnerable to swings in commodities prices than other emerging regions.
The main currencies in the European Union’s eastern wing have hit multi-month lows against the euro this month.
The Czech crown would gain 3 percent against the euro relative to Wednesday’s close over the next year, to 24.844. Poland’s zloty is seen firming 2.2 percent to 4.17 and the Hungarian forint could strengthen by 1.3 percent to 311.36.
Romania’s leu and the Serbian dinar, which have outperformed regional peers this year, are seen shedding 0.9 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
”The leu and dinar have some more room to ease in coming weeks according to the poll, while the crown, forint and zloty are expected to gain about one percent by the end of this month,” Reuters poll reads.
Analysts projected a similar course for the crown and zloty, even though monetary policy diverges in the two countries.