Mathematics simulations of COVID-19 evolution in Romania: Peak till mid-May, death toll might exceed 1,000 by April-end

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A Romanian entrepreneur, Bogdan Micu, the inventor of “The Forests’ Inspector” (an app that detects illegal logging), has designed a mathematics pattern that follows the trends of the novel Coronavirus cases in Romania. Micu is also part of the team that coordinates the international acquisitions of medical equipment and is adviser at the Environment Ministry.

He said that, according to his calculations, the peak of the epidemic will start in Romania around April 7 and will last until May 15. During April 25-30 a peak will be also reached regarding the the death toll, when we’ll exceed 1,000 death cases.

Bogdan Micu says he has made this prediction as authorities need an assessment on which and how many medical devices and materials have to be imported. “I needed this prediction for I have to know what it must be purchased, you cannot buy millions of equipment from one day to the next. We need strategy and vision, otherwise you are dead on the international equipment market. My version of simulation is a slightly more optimist scenario than in Italy and Spain. The main reason I opted for such version is that Romania, unlike other countries, has taken social distancing measures much earlier. Most of my variables are universally valid, already tested in China and other countries, so closer to the reality in our country,” Bogdan Micu explained.

The entrepreneur has considered two variables specific to Romania: the rate of social distancing -meaning that 2 in 3 Romanians respect the distancing rules- and also the number of infected who entered Romania.

So, the compliance rate of social distancing stands around 67% in Romania. “I have no data to know if this is reality, but I believe it’s true”, the coder argues.

In order to assess the number of infected people who entered Romania in the past week, Micu checked the statistics provided by the Border Police to see how many people entered the country and from what countries they came. “I checked on a certain date how many were already confirmed with COVID-19 in those countries. By extrapolation, I said a percent of sick people similar with the population in that area are Romanians. For the time being I chose 2,000 initial sick people on day zero. That means my estimations of how many are infected of those who had entered Romania. And I chose March 8 as day zero”, Micu explains.

The predictable scenario

-starting around April 8 we’ll exceed the number of 5,000 infected people.

-around April 25-April 30 we’ll exceed the death toll of 1,000.

-the peak will come around April 7-9 (cases with serious symptoms in hospitals and quarantine), and will last till May 15. After mid-May there will be less than 5,000 cases in hospitals and quarantine.

-The day that will see the most numerous patients in hospitals is somewhere between April 17-25 (around 8,500 people hospitalised and under quaratine, but who have serious symptoms).

-During the peak period, we’ll have around 35-40 deaths per day.

-I expect the epidemic to come to an end around July 3. By that time, Romania will report around 2.657 deaths due to coronavirus.

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1 Comment
  1. “The daily balance of the evolution of the number of active infected people”

    a mathematical modeling, with application to 3 case studies, or to any case with available data

    where it can be published ?

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