CFA Romania analysts expect inflation rate above 4% over the next 12 months


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The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased in May 2019 against the previous month, but the analysts forecast an inflation rate of 4.12% in the next 12 months, a CFA Romania survey reveals on Friday.

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased in May by 4.9%, in May, up to 51.5 points (up 10% against the same month last year).

The Current Conditions Index decreased by 1.5 points against the previous month to 58.4 points (up 1.5 points against the same month last year).

The Expectations Index increased by 8.2 points to 48.1 points (up 14.2 points against the same month in the previous year).

With regard to the EUR/RON exchange rate, 77% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON during the next 12 months (as compared to the present value). Thus, the average expectation for the 6-month horizon is 4.7911, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected rate is 4.8384, the release reads.

The CFA analysts say the anticipations for the inflation rate over the next 12 months (June 2020/June 2019) point to 4.12%. To be noticed the anticipations of higher interest for short term maturities (ROBOR 3M) and for medium term maturities (5 years), 72% and 64% respectively of the participants expecting such a development.

The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exams.

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched by CFA Romania in May 2011.

Macroeconomic confidence index can range from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions.

CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst, qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the 144 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 160 members.

CFA Romania promotes responsible investments over long term in the interest of its clients. CFA Romania has more than 230 members.

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