National Commission for Economic Forecasting (CNP) is expecting an economic growth of 2.6 percent this year and 2.5 percent for 2015, according to the latest estimates, similar to those advanced this May of 2.5 percent in 2014, respectively 2.6 percent for 2015, according to the 2014 Autumn Forecast.
According signal data published last week by the National Statistics Institute (INS), the economy grew by 1.9 percent in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of this year, seasonally adjusted, and by 2.8 percent in the first nine months, up 0.4 percentage points higher than the annual advance recorded in June. This year’s GDP will reach RON 674.3 billion and RON 709.7 billion in 2015.
Regarding the inflation, CNP estimates that at end-2015 it should stand at 2.9 percent, with an average rate of 2.2 per cent; end-2016 inflation should stand at 2.8 percent, with average rates of 3 percent, while at end-2017 it should stand at 2.5 per cent, with averages of 2.7 percent and at end-2018 it should stand at 2.3 percent, with average rates of 2.5 percent.
On the other hand, CNP expects Romania’s final consumption in 2014 to advance 3.6 percent and 2.4 per cent in 2015; individual household consumption should advance 3.1 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, whereas public administration final consumption should be up 9 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.
The Commission also estimates for next year an exchange average rate of RON 4.42/euro, down 3 bani compared to the estimated rate in spring forecast (scenario for Convergence Programme). The exchange average rate for 2014 will be RON 4.44/euro (RON 4.48/euro the previous forecast), in 2016 it will reach the same average as in 2015 (RON 4.42/euro) and in 2017- RON 4.4/euro. The values for the next two years remains stable compared to May forecast.
Regarding US dollar, CNP estimates for 2014 an annual exchange average rate of RON 3.33 /dollar, for 2015 and 2016 – RON 3.4 /dollar, for 2017 – RON 3.38/dollar and for 2018 – RON 3. 37/dollar.
In the same time, CNP has improved to 6.3 percent the forecast for industrial production growth in 2014.